United's £65m Baleba bid puts Wilcox, Vivell and data chief Sansoni to the test

Manchester United have made a formal offer of £60m, plus £5m in add-ons, to sign Brighton midfielder Carlos Baleba before the summer transfer window closes — a significant discount on the £100m-plus valuation Brighton attached to the Cameroonian just twelve months ago.

The drop in asking price is not without context. Baleba endured a difficult 2024-25 campaign, being substituted at half-time twice by Brighton manager Fabian Hurzeler in the first half of the season. After representing Cameroon at the Africa Cup of Nations, he managed only eight league starts in the second half of the campaign, and Hurzeler himself acknowledged that transfer speculation had affected the midfielder’s performances.

United had considered a move for Baleba last summer but could not justify the fee at a time when other positions were prioritised. The revised £65m package now makes the deal more palatable on paper, yet the circumstances that created the discount are precisely what make the transfer a calculated gamble.

The move is being framed internally as a significant test of United’s data-led recruitment model. Baleba ranks highly on key performance metrics, which the club’s analysts believe point to a player capable of becoming one of the Premier League’s best in his position. The argument is that a single poor season does not override the underlying numbers accumulated across a longer period — but scouts who watched him in person last term would not have filed encouraging reports.

Michael Sansoni, United’s director of data, was recruited from the Mercedes Formula 1 team two years ago. His department has received sustained investment even as other areas of the club have been scaled back, and Sansoni recently received industry recognition for his work. Whether Baleba justifies the fee will reflect directly on the credibility of the data-driven approach he champions.

Ultimately, however, the greater scrutiny falls on director of football Jason Wilcox and director of recruitment Christopher Vivell. The two men are the principal decision-makers during transfer windows, and while the recruitment process at United is described as collaborative, accountability for outcomes rests with them.

United formed a positive view of Baleba some time ago and are willing to look past last season’s regression on the basis of that longer-term assessment. The conviction is supported by data, but the transfer carries undeniable risk — and three senior figures will have their reputations measured against what Baleba does next.