Saint-Etienne, Perfect Leader After Four Matches, Heavy Favourite for Ligue 1 Promotion

Saint-Etienne concluded its fourth Ligue 2 matchday with a 3-2 victory at Dijon on Monday evening, bringing its record to four wins in as many matches and opening up a four-point gap over its two closest pursuers, Reims and Montpellier.

The Greens’ flawless run comes just over a year after a cruel playoff elimination for promotion against Nice (0-0 away, 1-4 at home). This time, ASSE approaches the 2026-2027 season with a consistency that its competitors have yet to match. Before Dijon, the Stéphanois had successively beaten Sochaux, Clermont and Grenoble.

“Our opponents will raise their level and we are not yet perfect. But what was perfect was our collective reaction. I am convinced that we will be much better prepared after this match,” said manager Ian Cathro after the match.

Statistical projections from the specialized Football Meets Data account, published on X, confirm Saint-Etienne’s favourite status. According to these models, ASSE has an 85.9% chance of finishing in the top 5, a 71% chance of reaching the podium, a 58.3% chance of finishing in the top two — equivalent to direct promotion — and a 37.8% chance of winning the title. Reims (21.8%), Rodez (11.1%), Montpellier (9.3%) and Annecy (7.8%) complete the ranking of the most likely contenders for promotion.