Euro 2028 seedings: France almost assured of top spot, but draw remains treacherous

France is virtually certain to be among the seeded teams in the Euro 2028 qualifying draw, set for December 6 in Belfast. Three positive results in the opening matches of the Zinédine Zidane era — victories over Turkey (0-1) and Belgium (0-1), and a draw against Italy (1-1) — give them a 99.9% chance of finishing in the first pot.

The mechanism has been well-established since the creation of the Nations League in 2018: performances in the UEFA competition determine the pots for the continental qualifying draws. The top three finishers from each of the four groups in League A will form this first pot, allowing France to avoid other major European nations in the qualifying phase.

Nevertheless, the draw is not without danger. Pot 2 currently comprises the four bottom finishers in League A — Turkey, Wales, Czechia and Serbia — as well as the top two from League B, which could include Switzerland, Austria, Sweden or Ukraine. Pot 3 is also not to be overlooked, with candidates such as Poland, Ireland, Hungary or Scotland.

The size of the group will depend on France’s performance in the Nations League. If they win their quarter-final next March, they will be placed in a group of four teams; otherwise, they will compete in a group of five, with the possibility of distant away trips to pot 4 selections such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia or Kazakhstan.

Direct qualification for Euro 2028, hosted on the British Isles, will be available to the 12 group winners and the eight best runners-up.