USA betting surge puts sportsbooks on edge ahead of Australia World Cup clash

The United States’ 4-1 opening victory over Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup has sent bettors flooding toward the USMNT ahead of Friday’s group-stage match against Australia, leaving sportsbooks in an uncomfortable position.

Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike described the post-Paraguay shift as “one-way traffic” toward the USA, with the Americans shortening from -133 to -176 favourites for the Australia fixture. The Draw, which books typically prefer in high-volume matches, sits at +305, while Australia are priced at +425.

“There was a lot of support on the USA in the first game, and that’s continued. We’ve definitely seen a spike in wagers on the U.S.,” Bickerdike said. The public is also backing Over 2.5 total goals and targeting Folarin Balogun — who scored twice against Paraguay — and Christian Pulisic in the scorer markets.

The exposure has put Caesars in a delicate spot. A draw would normally be the bookmaker’s ideal result in a match drawing this much one-sided action, but Bickerdike acknowledged that outcome could dampen the broader World Cup betting momentum they want to sustain.

“For this one-off event, a Draw is important,” he said. “But a low-scoring USA win wouldn’t be the worst result. Let’s keep this excitement around the World Cup going. What we’d be hoping to avoid is a comprehensive USA win, with Pulisic and Balogun scoring. That would not be good.”

In plain terms, a repeat of the Paraguay scoreline would be damaging for the books. A narrow 1-0 or 2-0 USMNT victory, without the star props landing, would be the more manageable outcome.

The wave of confidence is also reshaping World Cup futures. The USMNT have moved from +5000 to +4000 to win the tournament outright — placing them joint-10th alongside Belgium and Mexico — after just one match. France remain the +400 favourite, with Spain at +500 and both Portugal and England at +750.

Balogun’s Golden Boot odds have also attracted attention following his brace, with Bickerdike noting a notable increase in futures tickets on the Fulham striker since the Paraguay result.