Scotland's World Cup progression chances fall to 5% after results conspire against Clarke's side

Scotland’s chances of advancing to the World Cup knockout stages have been reduced to just 5.26% after a series of results across other groups left Steve Clarke’s side needing an unlikely combination of outcomes to survive.

Clarke’s team finished third in Group C on three points following a 3-0 defeat by Brazil in Miami on Wednesday, a result that came after a win over Haiti and a loss to Morocco. At full-time against Brazil, statistical models still gave Scotland a 42% chance of progressing as one of the best third-placed teams — a figure that has since collapsed to roughly one in 20.

The damage was done by results elsewhere. South Africa’s victory over South Korea and Ecuador’s win against Germany meant that the third-placed teams in Groups A, B, D, E and F all now hold better overall records than Scotland’s three points and a goal difference of -3. Scotland must now hope that four of the six remaining third-placed teams finish with a worse record than their own.

Much of the frustration centres on the opening group game. Scotland beat Haiti but failed to win by a margin that would have given them a healthier goal difference to fall back on — a detail that now looms large over their tournament.

Elimination could be confirmed as early as Saturday if results in the evening’s group games all go against them, though Clarke’s side may have to wait another 24 hours for their fate to be sealed.

Should they go out at the group stage, it would extend Scotland’s unwanted record of never having progressed beyond the first round of any major tournament.

Clarke was candid in his assessment after the Brazil defeat. “We made it difficult for ourselves, that’s it,” he told BBC Sport. “We gave them the goals, we gave them the game they wanted. Disappointing.”

“It was unbelievable the shift the players put in, the ones who played 90 minutes in that heat and humidity were outstanding, but we have to be better if we want to compete at this level.”

“In the first four or five minutes we passed the ball well and then made a mistake. You cannot do that at this level because it puts you on the back foot and it becomes a long night.”

The Scotland manager left little doubt about his expectations. “For sure I think we’re going home,” he added.