Scotland's World Cup last-32 fate rests on nine results going their way

Scotland’s hopes of reaching the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in their history hang by a thread after Steve Clarke’s side were beaten 3-0 by Brazil to finish third in Group C with three points and a goal difference of -3.

The Scots opened the tournament with a win over Haiti before a 1-0 defeat to Morocco, and the heavy loss to Brazil leaves their fate entirely in other teams’ hands. In a 48-team World Cup format, only the best eight third-placed finishers from 12 groups advance, meaning Scotland need at least four other third-placed sides to finish with fewer than three points or a worse goal difference.

What Scotland need from Group E (Thursday)

Ecuador and Curacao both sit on one point heading into their final fixtures against Germany and Ivory Coast respectively. Scotland need Germany and Ivory Coast to win, which would ensure whoever finishes third in Group E falls short of Scotland’s three-point tally.

What Scotland need from Group F (Thursday)

Sweden currently occupy third place in Group F with three points and a goal difference of 0 — better than Scotland’s -3. Japan, second in the group on four points, must not only beat Sweden but do so by at least four goals to drag Sweden’s goal difference below Scotland’s, given Sweden retain the advantage on goals scored.

What Scotland need from Group D (Thursday)

Australia and Paraguay, second and third in Group D respectively, meet directly in their final match. A draw would put both sides on four points and above Scotland. A Paraguay win would leave Australia on three points but with a superior goal difference. Scotland therefore need Australia to win by at least two goals.

The wider picture

South Africa’s victory over South Korea in Group A has already dealt Scotland a blow, with that result producing a third-placed finisher on more than three points. The Scots may not learn their fate until the conclusion of Group J’s fixtures on Sunday, making for an agonising wait.

Should Scotland survive the group stage, it would mark a historic first — the nation has never previously reached the knockout rounds of a major tournament.