Prates predicts he'll survive early 'smashing' before knocking out Makhachev in rounds four or five

Carlos Prates has laid out a blunt, self-aware blueprint for how he expects a UFC welterweight title fight against Islam Makhachev to unfold — one that begins with him getting dominated on the mat before ending with a late knockout victory.

Prates, widely considered the next in line for a shot at the 170-pound title, told Gilbert Burns that Makhachev’s elite grappling will cause him serious problems in the opening rounds. Rather than downplay that threat, the Brazilian embraced it.

“I think I’m going to start by getting smashed and the first time I manage to get back to my feet and start hurting him, I’m going to knock him out somewhere around the fourth or fifth round,” Prates said.

The prediction is rooted in a specific reading of Makhachev’s most recent title defence. At UFC 330, Makhachev defeated Ian Garry to retain his welterweight championship, and Prates says watching that fight only increased his belief that he can compete with the champion.

“If Garry was able to get Makhachev off his back, I can do it too,” Prates said. “I became even more confident… Based on the things I saw and the amount of time we have to train, I was like, ‘F*ck, I think we can do this.’ I already thought so and now I saw Garry defend certain positions the same way I do, like the back against the cage. I do that a lot.”

The logic is straightforward: if Garry — not known as a specialist in grappling defence — could create enough separation to make the fight competitive, Prates believes his own scrambling ability gives him a realistic path to a finish.

No official date or opponent announcement has been made for Makhachev’s next title defence, but Prates’ positioning at the top of the welterweight contender rankings makes the matchup a credible next step for the champion.