Prates predicts he survives early 'smashing' before knocking out Makhachev in round four or five

Carlos Prates has laid out a detailed — and deliberately humble — blueprint for beating UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, predicting he will absorb significant damage in the early rounds before landing a knockout somewhere between the fourth and fifth. The Brazilian contender, who is currently in negotiations with the UFC over a fight date, made the comments in an interview with former UFC welterweight Gilbert Burns.

Prates reached for a specific historical parallel to explain his thinking. “You look at his fight with Chael Sonnen — Chael Sonnen got the mount in the first round. In the second, [Silva] went out there and knocked the guy out,” Prates said. “And that’s what I think is going to happen. I think I’m going to start by getting smashed, and the first time I manage to get back to my feet and start hurting him, I’m going to knock him out somewhere around the fourth or fifth round.”

Prates said UFC 335, scheduled for December 12 in Las Vegas, “would be perfect” for the matchup, though he added that UFC officials have also floated a January date in Australia as an alternative. Makhachev most recently defended his title against Ian Machado Garry earlier this month.

Far from being discouraged by that Garry fight, Prates said watching it made him more confident. He noted that Garry managed to defend certain grappling positions against Makhachev in ways that mirror his own game — particularly using the cage to stay upright and avoid conceding back control. “I saw Ian Garry defend certain positions the same way I do, like the back against the cage. I do that a lot,” Prates said. “If he was able to get Makhachev off his back, I can do it too.”

Prates carries genuine knockout credentials into any title conversation. He has finished every UFC opponent except Garry, including former welterweight champions Jack Della Maddalena and Leon Edwards in consecutive appearances. His only UFC defeat came in April 2025, when Garry — the same man who just pushed Makhachev — outpointed him over five rounds.

“I already thought so, and now I saw Ian Garry defend certain positions the same way I do,” Prates added. “Man, I think this guy is going to be in trouble. When I get my hands on him… I’m very confident that I’m going to bring that belt home.”