Netherlands, Japan and Sweden's routes to the World Cup 2026 last-32 from Group F

Netherlands head into the final round of World Cup 2026 Group F fixtures as the side best placed to advance, but Japan and Sweden both retain realistic routes to the last-32 when the group concludes on Friday.

All three remaining contenders — Netherlands, Japan and Sweden — could still finish in any order after the final set of games. Netherlands and Japan are level on four points, with the Dutch ahead on goals scored, while Sweden sit one point behind on three. Tunisia are already eliminated and cannot affect the standings beyond their final fixture.

How can Netherlands advance?

Ronald Koeman’s side face Tunisia in Kansas and are all but certain to progress. They can only drop out of the top two if they lose to Tunisia and Sweden beat Japan by a narrower margin. Having scored five against Sweden earlier in the tournament, the Dutch would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against them if both sides finish level on points.

What must Japan do to reach the last-32?

Avoiding defeat against Sweden in Arlington, Texas, will be enough for Japan to finish in the top two. Even a heavy loss would likely still see them advance as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the tournament. Bettering Netherlands’ result against Tunisia would secure first place in the group.

How can Sweden seal their place in the knockouts?

Graham Potter’s side are through with either a win or a draw. A victory combined with a Netherlands defeat would lift them to the top of the group; a draw would keep them on four points but behind Japan. A loss, however, leaves Sweden dependent on other third-placed teams across the tournament having a worse record — a precarious position.

How tiebreakers work in Group F

If teams finish level on points, their group standing is determined first by head-to-head record between the tied sides. Where multiple teams are level, a mini-league is constructed using only the results between those teams, ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored in those specific matches. If still inseparable, overall goal difference and goals scored across all group games come into play.