Mexico open as heavy -245 favourites against South Africa in World Cup 2026 opener

Mexico have been installed as a -245 favourite to beat South Africa in the opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Thursday, with kick-off scheduled for 3 p.m. ET — a significant drift from the -185 line posted when the market first opened.

The match, which serves as the tournament’s curtain-raiser, has attracted unusually high betting volume, according to Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike. South Africa, who opened at +550, have drifted further to +700, while the draw has moved from +280 out to +330 as bettors pile onto the co-hosts.

“With it being the first game, you’ve got the climate buildup for the whole tournament,” Bickerdike said. “Historically, the first games of the tournament are high handle, and I don’t see this being any different.”

The one-sided action reflects both Mexico’s status as a co-host nation and the perceived accessibility of their group draw. Bickerdike noted that El Tri are proving popular not only in straight match betting but also as a parlay leg — a combination that amplifies the market movement.

“Mexico is very popular. It’s fairly one-way traffic on this match. Mexico is also popular in parlays,” he said. “Given the fact that their group is fairly favorable, that’s only going to enhance the interest in Mexico.”

For the sportsbook, the ideal outcome is clear. “It’s very rare that we’re not rooting for the Draw. That’s the best result,” Bickerdike added.

Mexico are one of three co-hosts for the 2026 tournament alongside the United States and Canada, and the weight of expectation — combined with a home crowd — has made their opener one of the most heavily wagered matches of the early schedule.