France-Germany in Round of 16, Spain in Semis: Projected Bracket for France at 2026 World Cup

After their success against Senegal (3-1) in the first match of Group I, Didier Deschamps’ France side currently sit second behind Norway, who beat Iraq (4-1). With only the opening matches played, the specialist account Football Meets Data published a complete projection of the knockout stage bracket on X.

The statistician does not base the projection on the current standings but on forecasts of final group results. He estimates France’s qualification chances at 99.9%, compared to 98% for Erling Haaland’s Norway, and places France top of Group I after the group stage.

According to the draw held in December, the Group I winner would face a third-place finisher from groups C, D, F, G or H in the Round of 16. In this scenario, that opponent would be Sweden — currently top of Group F after their emphatic victory over Tunisia (5-1) — who would finish third in their group.

If FIFA rankings held true throughout, Kylian Mbappé’s teammates would then face Germany in the Round of 16, Morocco in the quarterfinals, and Spain in the semifinals. A potential final against Argentina would take shape, with the Albiceleste potentially facing Portugal in the quarterfinals and England in the semifinals.

Among other projected Round of 16 matchups are Brazil-Japan, England-Senegal, Argentina-Uruguay, and Portugal-Turkey. These projections remain purely theoretical: two group stage matches remain to be played in each of the twelve groups, and the final bracket will only be confirmed after the group stage concludes.