FIFA red card suspension hands USA a major boost against Belgium in World Cup last 16

FIFA suspended the red card shown to Folarin Balogun during the United States’ 2-0 group-stage win over Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday, ruling the USMNT’s leading scorer eligible for Monday’s Round of 16 clash against Belgium in Seattle.

The decision, announced on Sunday, sent bookmakers into rapid recalibration. Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said his operation had built its pricing on the assumption that Balogun would be absent. “From a customer perspective, it’s tremendous news. From a team and country perspective, it’s tremendous news,” Mucklow said. “But for sportsbooks, it’s a little headache. We built our prices and traded based on the USA’s top goalscorer not playing. Now, he’s the co-favorite to be a goalscorer and co-favorite to be the first goalscorer. So we’re scrambling.”

Bettors moved quickly once the news broke. Within two and a half hours of the ruling, Balogun had risen to the top of first-goalscorer ticket volume at Caesars. He is now listed as the +525 co-favourite to open the scoring alongside Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku, and sits at +145 for an anytime goal — fractionally behind Lukaku’s +144.

The match odds shifted accordingly. Before FIFA’s decision, Caesars had Belgium as a slim favourite in both the three-way moneyline and the To Advance market. After the ruling, the USA moved to a slim favourite. The three-way line settled around USA +155 / Belgium +159 / Draw +235, having initially moved to USA +144 / Belgium +173 before tightening. In the To Advance market — covering regulation, extra time and penalties — the line flipped from Belgium -114 / USA -108 to USA -113 / Belgium -109.

Public money has poured in heavily on the Americans regardless of the Balogun development. The USA is attracting 72% of tickets and 79% of money in the three-way market, and 82% of tickets and 83% of money in the To Advance market. “Every game America has played so far, we’ve broken records for tickets and money on soccer,” Mucklow said. “The interest is just off the charts. I’m stunned. Everybody’s bought into it.”