Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane favourite ahead of Dembélé and Declan Rice

Harry Kane is the player best positioned to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, according to odds set by bookmaker Betfair, with an estimated 19.6% chance. The English striker for Bayern Munich leads Ousmane Dembélé (14.2%) and Declan Rice (10.6%) in this provisional ranking, just weeks before the World Cup.

Kane’s season clearly works in his favour: 61 goals in 51 matches with the Bavarian club, a Bundesliga title and a Coupe d’Allemagne trophy won, despite an elimination in the Ligue des Champions semi-final against PSG. A victory in June would make him the first English player to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001.

Ousmane Dembélé, for his part, can boast a Ligue des Champions title and a decisive final appearance, but his season judged less convincing on a statistical level could weigh in the deliberations. Declan Rice, an unlucky finalist in the Ligue des Champions, has contributed to Arsenal’s first Premier League title in twenty years.

Behind this leading trio, several players remain in contention. Michaël Olise stands at 8%, ahead of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Lamine Yamal (7.1% each), Vitinha (5.3%) and Kylian Mbappé, relegated to 4.2% despite a remarkable season. The World Cup, whose results traditionally factor into the awarding of the trophy, could significantly reshuffle the cards.