2026 World Cup: Morocco Favored to Face Netherlands in Round of 16

Second in Group C with four points, the Lions of Atlas have a 100% probability of qualifying for the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, even before their final group match against Haiti on Thursday. A statistical certainty accompanied by a daunting prospect for what lies ahead.

According to simulations by the Football Meets Data algorithm, Morocco would face the Netherlands in 52% of scenarios, current leaders of Group F and seventh-ranked nation in the FIFA standings. A clash against Japan appears in only 33.9% of projections.

Morocco’s path to this stage justifies the optimism: a victory over Scotland (1-0) on Saturday, then a hard-fought draw against Brazil (1-1) a week earlier. The Lions of Atlas are level on points with the Seleção, relegated to second place only by an inferior goal difference.

The other projected matchups drawn by the algorithm paint a contrasting picture. France and Sweden would face off in 45.5% of simulations, Côte d’Ivoire and Norway in 49.4%, while England and the Democratic Republic of the Congo would clash in 34.5% of cases.

If the Dutch scenario comes to pass, Morocco, semifinalists at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, will inherit a heavyweight opponent in the first knockout round — a test that will reveal whether the Lions of Atlas can again shake up the world hierarchy.