2026 World Cup: Argentina faces Cape Verde in Round of 16 according to projections

Statistical projections from multiple simulations now place Cape Verde as Argentina’s potential Round of 16 opponent at the 2026 World Cup. This change came after Cape Verde’s 2-2 draw with Uruguay, which gives them the highest probability of finishing second in their group behind Spain.

These projections, regularly updated by the Football Meets Data account, do not reflect real-time standings but simulations incorporating statistical data for each team. This is why France appears at the top of Group I despite currently being behind Norway in the actual standings.

Argentina, who had not yet played their second group match against Jordan at the time of this update, find themselves in a bracket deemed favorable. In the Round of 16, the defending world champions would face Australia or an unconvincing Belgium according to these projections. In the quarterfinals, their potential opponents would be Canada, Algeria, Colombia, or Ghana.

This path contrasts with other projected matchups in the bracket: France-Germany and Spain-Portugal in the Round of 16, Netherlands-Morocco in the Round of 16.

These simulations also incorporate Portugal finishing second in Group K following their 1-1 draw with the Democratic Republic of Congo. If the Seleção were to finish first — which remains in their hands with victories against Uzbekistan and Colombia — a Portugal-Argentina quarterfinal would pit Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi against each other, potentially marking one of the last clashes between the two players at this level.