Sportsbooks favour a draw as USA face Paraguay in 2026 World Cup opener

Heavy public backing for the United States has left sportsbooks hoping for a draw when the USMNT open their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign against Paraguay on Friday night.

Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike confirmed that early betting action has been “pretty good” but firmly one-sided, with the three-way moneyline sitting at USA -110 / Paraguay +305 / Draw +235. The draw, at +235, represents the most financially comfortable result for the book.

“The U.S. will be by far the more popular side. They’re betting the home nation, and we expect that to continue,” Bickerdike said.

Bickerdike drew a direct comparison to Thursday’s tournament opener between co-host Mexico and South Africa, noting that the dynamic is almost identical. “Similar to Mexico, the USA is a loser on the match for us. That will not change in any way, shape or form,” he said. “Draw is looking like the most ideal outcome.”

He added an interesting wrinkle: despite the draw being the book’s preferred result, Caesars has already taken more individual wagers on the draw than on Paraguay outright — suggesting a segment of bettors share the scepticism about a straightforward American victory.

“But I’d imagine come kickoff, Draw will still be the best result,” Bickerdike said.

The bulk of betting volume, as is typical, is expected to arrive on game day itself, with the heaviest surge in the final hour or two before kick-off. The United States, as a co-host nation alongside Mexico and Canada, enters Group D as favourites to advance, but the sportsbook numbers reflect the reality that backing a home nation in a major tournament almost always creates liability for operators — regardless of the sport.