Sportsbooks brace for USA liability as 91% of money backs them against Bosnia

American sportsbooks are facing a lopsided betting market ahead of the USA’s 2026 World Cup Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday, with Caesars Sports reporting that 91.4% of money in the To Qualify market is riding on the United States.

“Particularly in the To Qualify market, where 91.4% of money is on the USA. It’s one-way traffic,” said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sports head of soccer trading. “On the three-way, there’s a little bit more on Bosnia — 24% of tickets and 14% of money. That’s the highest percentage opposing the USA so far in this tournament.”

The surge of public money has forced Caesars to adjust its lines significantly. The three-way moneyline opened at USA -190 following the Americans’ 3-2 group-stage loss to Türkiye, a result Bickerdike believes caused an overcorrection in the market. By Tuesday evening, the line had moved sharply to USA -275, with Bosnia and Herzegovina drifting out to +750 and the draw at +370.

“The market overreacted to the Türkiye defeat,” Bickerdike said. “It took a little time for the market to settle. It’s also likely that Christian Pulisic is going to start, as well. So it’s now a fairer reflection of what the prices should be.”

In the To Qualify market, USA odds have moved from an opening -390 to as short as -625 before settling at -560 on Tuesday night, with Bosnia and Herzegovina at +360.

Bickerdike acknowledged that the scale of patriotic betting had caught the book off guard. “Early signs were there, before the tournament, that there was a bit of patriotic money,” he said. “Then given how the U.S. started, we saw quite an influx. It’s half understandable, but equally, we were surprised to see the scale of action.”

With the book carrying heavy exposure on a USA win, a penalty shootout outcome — which would count as a draw on the three-way moneyline — would represent the most favourable result for Caesars. Team USA holds 68% of tickets and 82% of money in three-way action, leaving the sportsbook significantly exposed to a regulation or extra-time USA victory.

Goal totals are also generating liability, with the Over 2.5 line sitting at -132 and bettors pushing into alternate markets as well. “Most of our liability is on Over 2.5. And we have quite a bit of liability on Over 4.5,” Bickerdike said.

Despite the commercial pressure, Bickerdike was candid about the USA’s prospects on the pitch. “It’s a good matchup for the U.S., in terms of playing styles. I’d be confident if I was a U.S. fan,” he said.