Projections eliminate LOSC in 2026-2027 Champions League league phase

LOSC would be eliminated in the league phase of the 2026-2027 Champions League, according to projections from the Football meets data model, which simulates each fixture 20,000 times. Davide Ancelotti’s side would earn only 9 points, resulting in an insufficient 28th place finish, while PSG (5th) and RC Lens (22nd) would be the only two French representatives to reach the knockout stage.

Lille’s schedule promises to be demanding: Real Betis, Arsenal, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Bayern Munich, Stuttgart, Slovan Bratislava and Roma make up the eight matchdays of the league phase. With Galatasaray (pot 3) and Stuttgart (pot 4) on the agenda, the draw was not as favorable as it might appear. The model suggests that the club chaired by Olivier Létang weakened itself during the summer transfer window.

PSG, projected 5th behind Arsenal, Real Madrid, Bayern and Barcelona, would benefit from a slightly less daunting schedule than in the last two editions, despite clashes with Barcelona and Manchester City. The Parisians finished 11th last season, missing direct qualification to the top 8.

RC Lens, French runners-up led by Florian Thauvin, inherited a more manageable draw in the first part of the league phase: Slavia Prague, Sporting, Club Bruges, Como, RB Leipzig and Bodo/Glimt precede two prestigious clashes in January against Manchester City and Liverpool. Credited with 10 points in 22nd place, the Red and Golds could approach these European fixtures in a comfortable position.

This potential outcome would contrast with the first season of the new format, in 2024-2025, when all four French clubs survived the league phase — Lille even finishing 7th. The following season, only Marseille was eliminated, failing to advance from 25th place after a heavy defeat at Bruges (3-0). If the projections prove accurate, LOSC would in turn experience this disappointment from the first round.