Kane Heavy Favourite, Mbappé Reignites 2026 Ballon d'Or Race After Clasico Brace

Harry Kane approaches the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony on Monday evening at London Palladium as the clear favourite in the predictions, ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal. Ousmane Dembélé’s successor will be announced around 22:45.

The Bayern Munich striker is dominating the betting platforms: 63% chance of victory on Polymarket, odds ranging from 1.40 to 1.75 with major operators. None of the 30 finalists seriously challenges his favourite status hours before the verdict.

The hierarchy behind him was nonetheless shaken this weekend. Author of a brace in the Clasico won by Real Madrid at Barcelona (2-1) on Sunday, Mbappé has relaunched his candidacy at the perfect moment. On Polymarket, his chances of winning have risen from 4% on 21 October to 30% on the eve of the ceremony. The odds assigned to him at Bet365, BetFred, Betfair and Unibet now range between 2.10 and 2.75.

This progression comes largely at the expense of Lamine Yamal. The FC Barcelona winger, who peaked at 55.3% probability of victory on Polymarket in early October, now receives only 7%. His odds with bookmakers stand between 6.5 and 9, far behind his two direct rivals.

Mbappé’s brace at Camp Nou has therefore reshuffled the cards for second place, without shaking Kane’s dominant position on the eve of an evening that promises to be historic for English football.