Sonnen warns McGregor's only realistic path past Holloway at UFC 329 is a first-round knockout

Chael Sonnen has delivered a sobering assessment of Conor McGregor’s chances against Max Holloway at UFC 329, insisting that a first-round knockout is the former two-division champion’s only realistic path to victory when the pair meet at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 11.

Thirteen years after their original featherweight encounter in the UFC, McGregor and Holloway are set to renew their rivalry at welterweight — a weight class neither man called home during the peak years of their careers. Sonnen, while expressing genuine admiration for McGregor’s willingness to return following the severe leg break he suffered in 2021, was candid about the scale of the task facing the Irishman.

“Well, I’m inspired right now by Conor McGregor and I don’t think there’s very many famous elitist millionaires that could inspire me, but he is really… He’s tackling something big here,” Sonnen said. “First off, that’s the worst injury that I’ve ever seen. I’ve seen three other guys have it, but I’ve never seen an injury worse than this. He’s returning to a weight class outside of his prime, which historically has never worked out successfully, even in the boxing world.”

Sonnen also raised concerns about the fight being scheduled for five rounds, noting that the distance was a significant challenge even for McGregor at his physical best. He suggested that reports of McGregor working at a reduced intensity in training were a worrying sign ahead of such a high-stakes comeback.

“If somebody tells me they think Conor’s going to win, what I’m hearing is they think Conor’s going to knock him out,” Sonnen said. “And if somebody’s telling me they think Conor’s going to knock him out, what I’m hearing is they think he’s going to do it in the first round. That’s probably the most likely way.”

The verdict from Sonnen — himself a former UFC title challenger with a reputation for sharp fight analysis — underscores just how much McGregor has to overcome at UFC 329. A four-year absence from competition, a career-threatening injury, a new weight class, and a five-round format all stack the odds against the Dubliner. Holloway, meanwhile, arrives as the reigning BMF champion and one of the most active and decorated fighters of his generation.

UFC 329 takes place on July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.