Russell must win at Monza to keep F1 title alive, warns Palmer

George Russell must win the Italian Grand Prix at Monza or risk seeing his 2025 Formula 1 title hopes effectively ended, according to former F1 driver Jolyon Palmer. Russell sits second in the drivers’ standings on 183 points — level with Lewis Hamilton — while Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli leads on 242 points.

Palmer made the assessment on the F1 Nation podcast following the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort, where McLaren’s Lando Norris claimed a commanding victory ahead of Antonelli and Russell. The Italian teenager will carry an engine penalty into his home race at Monza, handing Russell a potential opportunity to claw back points.

“He could win it because the way that he’s been driving, I think Mercedes are the sure-fire favourites for Monza still,” Palmer said of Antonelli, before outlining why Russell cannot afford to let that scenario unfold. “If Kimi wins in Monza with a grid penalty, he is champion. I’ll go as far as saying that. It’ll be such a crushing blow. He will have won his home race with a load of overtaking, huge aplomb, and it will suck the life out of George to not take points out of him in Monza. George has to win this.”

Palmer drew a comparison with Max Verstappen’s title-winning comeback drives, arguing the analogy does not fully apply here. “When you reference Max’s comeback wins, that’s largely against Checo, isn’t it? Who was a lot further away from Max’s pace than George is of Kimi’s. And George was better in Zandvoort.”

He did, however, acknowledge that Russell’s Zandvoort weekend was not without fault. “I know he still didn’t put the race together. He had two bad first laps that set him apart. And his race pace wasn’t quite as good as Kimi’s either. But I don’t think in a clean race Kimi will come from 10th or 11th to beat George if George is anywhere near form from pole position.”

Palmer also flagged the physical demands of the high-speed Monza circuit as a wildcard. “Strategy differences, safety car involvements — it’s going to be tough on components across the board. Power units are going to be singing. Reliability’s not going to be easy at Monza.”

With Antonelli’s grid penalty confirmed and the gap between the two Mercedes drivers standing at 59 points, the Italian Grand Prix shapes up as a pivotal moment in the championship.