Relegation would cost Man City £315m and trigger 'FFP catastrophe', finance expert warns

Manchester City face a potential revenue shortfall of more than £315 million if their appeal against 114 Premier League financial rule breaches fails and results in relegation, according to football finance specialist Kieran Maguire.

City were found guilty by an independent panel of using ‘sham’ sponsorship deals to artificially inflate their revenue by around £900 million between 2009 and 2018, allowing them to circumvent financial fair play regulations. The club have launched an appeal, claiming they hold ‘irrefutable evidence’ of their innocence. Part of that appeal rests on the argument that some of the sponsorship money originated from the United Arab Emirates government — which is permitted under Premier League rules — rather than from the club’s owners, which is not. A verdict could arrive within 12 weeks.

Should the appeal fail, sanctions under consideration include points deductions, transfer embargos, financial penalties, and even expulsion from the Premier League. Fellow top-flight clubs are reportedly divided over how severely City should be punished.

Maguire, speaking to The i Paper, broke down the financial damage that Championship football would inflict. City would forfeit approximately £50 million in broadcasting revenue and £225 million in Champions League prize money and participation fees. Matchday income could fall by a further £40 million due to reduced corporate hospitality pricing — bringing the combined shortfall to roughly £315 million.

Beyond the immediate revenue hit, City would also be subject to the EFL’s Squad Cost Rules, which cap the amount clubs can spend on player and manager wages at 85 per cent of allowable income. Maguire described the scenario bluntly: “An FFP catastrophe unless there is a huge exodus.”

City’s wage bill for the 2024/25 season stood at approximately £408.4 million — more than eleven times the average Championship club’s wage bill of £37 million. Compliance with EFL spending rules would therefore require a dramatic reduction in playing staff costs.

For now, City’s focus remains on the pitch. They travel to Anfield on Sunday to face Liverpool as the Premier League resumes following the international break.