Palmer tips Ferrari for Monaco 1-2 and predicts Mercedes will miss the podium

Jolyon Palmer has predicted a Ferrari 1-2 at the Monaco Grand Prix, with Charles Leclerc taking victory and Lewis Hamilton finishing second, and no place on the podium for championship leaders Mercedes.

Speaking on the F1 Nation podcast alongside Tom Clarkson and James Hinchcliffe, the former Renault driver and F1 TV pundit argued that the narrow, unforgiving streets of Monte Carlo will blunt Mercedes’ dominant pace that has carried them to victory in every race of the 2026 season so far.

“I’m going to go quite punchy here,” Palmer said. “I’m going to say Leclerc wins, but I think Hamilton is second. It’s a Ferrari 1-2, and I’m going to say third is Lando [Norris].”

Palmer backed up his call by pointing to Mercedes’ historically mixed record at the principality. “No Mercedes on the podium. They haven’t often gone well in Monaco. They’ve had dominant years where Red Bull has beaten them. Ferrari has beaten them. You got Seb and Kimi back in the day. They haven’t been great in recent years either. I don’t think they get on the podium. So that’s my top three.”

Ferrari arrives in Monaco with momentum behind it. Hamilton produced his best result for the Maranello team with a second-place finish in Canada, and Leclerc — Monaco’s most celebrated resident driver — recently signed a contract extension with the team.

Mercedes, however, remains the dominant force in the championship standings. The Silver Arrows lead the constructors’ table with 219 points after five rounds, with Ferrari second on 147 and McLaren third on 106. In the drivers’ standings, Kimi Antonelli leads on 131 points, 43 clear of team-mate George Russell on 88. Antonelli, who became the youngest driver in series history to lead the championship, has won four of the five races held so far — taking victories in China, Japan, Miami, and Canada.

Whether Monaco’s unique demands can break that stranglehold, as Palmer believes, will become clear over the course of the weekend.