McLaren set to overtake Ferrari and challenge Mercedes by end of 2026 season, says Szafnauer

McLaren will surpass Ferrari in the constructors’ championship and emerge as Mercedes’ primary challenger before the end of the 2026 Formula 1 season, according to former Alpine team principal Otmar Szafnauer. Speaking on the High Performance Racing podcast alongside broadcaster Jake Humphrey, Szafnauer made his assessment in the wake of Lando Norris’s back-to-back victories at the Hungarian and Dutch Grands Prix.

Szafnauer pointed to McLaren’s recently completed upgrade package as the catalyst for the shift in the competitive order. “Monza will be very important because they brought an upgrade that did work in Hungary,” he said. “I think they continued with that upgrade from what I read in Zandvoort, and now the upgrade’s complete. Let’s see how they go in Monza.”

Despite Ferrari appearing to be Mercedes’ closest threat earlier in the season, Szafnauer believes the picture has changed. “I still think they’re going to be Mercedes’ closest competitor at the end of the season. I said that at the beginning, but it seemed like it was Ferrari. And I think it’s ebbing and flowing, the relative performance due to the fact that not all of the upgrades are coming at the same time, and the upgrades are significant.”

On the question of why constructors’ championship leader Mercedes has been measured in the timing of its upgrades, Szafnauer pointed squarely at the cost cap. “They have upgrades now that they could bring, but once you start making those parts, it costs you, and they’ll go over the cap,” he explained.

He predicted Mercedes will consolidate its remaining development spend into a single major package rather than a series of smaller updates. “I predict they’ll have one more big upgrade as opposed to a lot of little ones because they can’t afford it. They’re at the cap,” he said, identifying the Malaysia and Singapore race window as the likely timing for that push.

Szafnauer also used the midfield battle between Alpine and Racing Bulls to illustrate how staggered upgrade cycles can dramatically swing relative performance within a single season, noting that Racing Bulls’ recent package had temporarily put them well clear of Alpine before the gap closed again.