Man City could face 'multiple double-figure' points deduction, finance expert warns

Manchester City could face a points deduction running into ‘multiple double figures’ if their appeal against a guilty verdict for financial rule breaches fails, according to football finance expert Kieran Maguire.

An independent commission found City guilty of all but one of the charges relating to financial rule breaches. The club continue to protest their innocence and have lodged an appeal against the verdict, meaning the full scope of any sanctions remains unknown while that process plays out.

Speaking on the GIVEMESPORT Market Madness podcast, Maguire outlined why the scale of any deduction would dwarf those previously handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest. “The redacted report sets out year by year how much the sham contracts contributed to the artificial commercial revenue,” he said. “Over the rolling three-year period, in some years we could be talking about a £350 million difference. That would shatter all records for PSR compliance.”

Maguire noted that the Forest and Everton cases each involved a single breach in a single year, with overspends of no more than £20 million. “Is there a ceiling on what can be deducted?” he asked. “It has to be multiple double figures of points, before you start the calculations.”

Beyond any points penalty, Maguire estimated the total financial exposure could be enormous. Adding up nine years of potential Champions League non-participation at an average of £50 million per season, Europa League losses, player bonus claims, the Premier League’s legal fees, and fines, he put the figure “in excess of a billion pounds regardless of the points deduction.”

On the possibility of City being expelled from the Premier League entirely, Maguire was cautious. “I think it would be a very unusual vote,” he said, pointing to the legal risks for any clubs that voted for expulsion before the appeal had concluded. He added that while some elite clubs are frustrated by the delay — believing it affects their ability to qualify for the Champions League — mid-tier clubs are more concerned about the mounting legal costs the case has already generated for the league as a whole.

City’s appeal remains ongoing, and because all parties are bound by non-disclosure agreements, the sanction — if the guilty verdict is upheld — may not become public until the appeal result is announced.