Lawson's midfield dominance forces Red Bull into awkward 2027 seat dilemma

Liam Lawson is the standout midfield performer of the 2026 Formula 1 season, yet his place on the grid next year is far from secure as Red Bull weighs whether the New Zealander has a future at its senior team or no future at all.

Lawson has accumulated 83 points with Racing Bulls in 2026, almost twice the 42 scored by second-best midfield driver Pierre Gasly. Crucially, that form is not a product of his brief three-race stint at Red Bull earlier in the year — his points-per-race average at the senior team (4.67) was barely higher than the 4.31 he has posted at Racing Bulls.

The threat to Lawson’s seat comes from 19-year-old Bulgarian Formula 2 contender Nikola Tsolov, who claimed six victories in the first 14 rounds of the 2026 F2 season. Tsolov’s qualifying pace has faded in recent rounds and he has not won in his last 11 races, but he sits just seven points behind championship leader Rafael Camara — who makes his F1 debut with Haas at this weekend’s Brazil Grand Prix — and retains genuine title prospects.

With Arvid Lindblad joining Racing Bulls as a rookie this season, Lawson’s position had appeared vulnerable. But Lawson has outperformed his team-mate clearly. He leads their qualifying head-to-head 12-6, holds a 0.072-second average advantage in single-lap pace, and is 0.141 seconds faster in race trim. Since returning from his Red Bull stint, Lawson has not been outqualified on merit, averaging 0.257 seconds faster per session.

Over the last four grands prix, Lawson has scored 24 points — more than both Isack Hadjar and George Russell over the same period. Lindblad, meanwhile, has managed just one point in that stretch, hampered by a grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with Oscar Piastri in Mexico.

The decision Red Bull must now make is whether Lawson’s current form suggests he could one day merit a second chance at the main team. If that path exists, Tsolov might be directed toward Super Formula — a route that previously led to F1 seats for Gasly and Lawson himself. If Red Bull sees no realistic route back to Milton Keynes for Lawson, however, retaining him at Racing Bulls becomes harder to justify, and Tsolov’s promotion becomes more likely.

The outcome will shape not just one driver’s career but the structure of Red Bull’s junior programme heading into the sport’s new regulatory era.