Ferrari and Mercedes inseparable on Italian GP long runs as McLaren and Red Bull fall back

Ferrari and Mercedes head into the Italian Grand Prix weekend locked in a battle so tight that long-run pace analysis from Friday practice at Monza cannot separate them — with Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, and George Russell covered by just 0.04 seconds per lap once stint lengths and tyre compounds are accounted for.

Leclerc topped the opening practice session for Ferrari, but Mercedes hit back in FP2, where Russell set the fastest overall time. The subsequent long runs, widely regarded as the most reliable indicator of Sunday race pace, produced no clearer picture. Leclerc and Hamilton were exactly equal after adjustment (+0.00s), with Russell 0.02s behind and championship leader Andrea Kimi Antonelli a further 0.02s adrift.

Different approaches through Monza’s sectors

Monza’s long straights place a premium on energy management, and the two teams appear to have adopted contrasting strategies through the lap. Mercedes gained time in the opening two sectors — Russell posted a 27.044s in sector one, second only to Pierre Gasly’s 27.039s, while Ferrari lost between one and a half and two tenths there. Mercedes also led in the second sector with a 27.784s, with Ferrari recording a 27.874s.

The picture reversed in the final sector, where Leclerc’s 27.546s was roughly two tenths quicker than Russell’s 27.721s. The pattern suggests Mercedes is deploying more performance early in the lap, while Ferrari recovers ground towards the end — though neither approach currently holds a decisive advantage.

McLaren off the pace, Red Bull out of contention

Beyond the leading two teams, the picture is more straightforward. McLaren was around four tenths off the pace over a single lap in FP2, with Lando Norris closing to 0.19s on the long runs — a gap that still leaves the MCL40 trailing at a circuit that does not appear to suit it as well as the more technical layouts in Budapest and Zandvoort. The Papaya team performs best in Monza’s second sector but is losing too much time in the final third of the lap.

Red Bull, meanwhile, appears out of contention for the top positions at Monza entirely, leaving the Italian Grand Prix shaping up as a straight fight between Ferrari and Mercedes — with the margins so fine that a single mistake in qualifying or the opening laps could prove decisive.