Spain's 0-0 World Cup stalemate with Cape Verde costs one bettor nearly $1 million

Spain’s 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their FIFA World Cup Group H opener delivered one of the most costly upsets in recent sports-betting history, wiping out millions in wagers and leaving sportsbooks with a substantial windfall.

Ahead of the match, Caesars Sportsbook had Spain priced at -1450 on the three-way moneyline, with Cape Verde at +2400 and the draw at +1000 — odds that reflected near-universal expectation of a comfortable Spanish victory. Public money piled onto Spain in both straight bets and parlays, with the draw drifting as far out as +2500 even during the match itself.

When the final whistle confirmed a goalless stalemate, the damage to bettors was severe. Hard Rock Bet reported that 78% of all money wagered on the match was lost, and described the parlay fallout as “enormous” given how frequently Spain had been used as an anchor leg.

“This was a significant result for the trading floor, with Spain heavily backed by bettors across both straight bets and parlays,” said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars head of soccer trading. “A remarkable result for Cape Verde in its first-ever World Cup match and one that could have significant implications for Group H and the tournament as a whole.”

Not every bettor suffered. A DraftKings customer placed two remarkably well-timed wagers — $100 on a 0-0 draw at +4000 and $100 on no goalscorer at +3000 — walking away with $7,000 profit inside two hours.

The most dramatic single loss came on the prediction market platform Polymarket, where one trader had placed $999,068 on Spain to win. At the pre-match implied probability of 92%, a Spanish victory would have returned just under $87,000 in profit. Instead, the trader lost virtually the entire stake. On the other side of that market, a separate Polymarket customer had placed $427,952 on Spain not to win — backing either a draw or a Cape Verde victory at a price of just 9% — a position that proved enormously profitable.

The result also carries broader tournament implications. Cape Verde’s point in Group H complicates Spain’s path through the group stage, and the ripple effects on futures markets are expected to be significant as the competition progresses.