RC Lens faces Inter and Bayern: a daunting draw looms in the Champions League

RC Lens is bracing for a particularly demanding draw in the Champions League. Placed in the fourth pot, the Sang et Or statistically have a greater chance of facing Inter Milan (29%) and Bayern Munich (28%) than Real Madrid (22%) among the seeded teams, according to simulations conducted by Football meets data based on 10,000 virtual draws.

The draw for the new competition format is scheduled for Thursday afternoon in Monaco. The mechanics of the draw — conducted in pot order — significantly alter the probabilities for clubs from the lower end of the UEFA rankings, and RC Lens is a direct illustration of this.

Beyond the seeded teams, projections indicate that Lens have strong chances of facing one or two additional Italian and German sides: Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, AS Roma and Napoli are among the most likely opponents from the intermediate pots. A schedule that leaves little room for error across the eight league phase matches.

The only relative respite would come from the two opponents from the final pot: according to the same simulations, Lens are more likely to face Celje, AEK Athens, Celtic or Slavia Prague than sides like Como or Stuttgart. These matchups will represent opportunities not to be missed in order to accumulate precious points.

The situation is markedly different for PSG, whose UEFA profile gives them a draw oriented towards La Liga, Premier League and Bundesliga clubs. Barcelona and Bayern could thus feature among PSG’s opponents from pot 1, alongside Aston Villa, Manchester United, Villarreal, Napoli, Stuttgart and Como according to the same projections. LOSC, the third French club involved, will also learn their schedule Thursday.