Paraguay eliminate Germany on penalties in fourth-biggest World Cup ranking upset since 1990

Paraguay eliminated Germany on penalties at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32, producing one of the most seismic upsets in the tournament’s modern history. Ranked 41st in the world against Germany’s 10th, the 31-place gap makes it the fourth-largest knockout-stage upset by FIFA ranking since the system was introduced.

Julio Enciso gave Paraguay a stunning lead in the 42nd minute, a goal that came despite Germany completing 253 more successful passes than their opponents in the first half — a margin without precedent in detailed World Cup data stretching back to 1966. Kai Havertz equalised early in the second half, and the match appeared to be settled when Jonathan Tah headed home in extra time, only for VAR to rule the goal out for a foul.

The shootout that followed ended Germany’s unblemished record in World Cup penalty shootouts. They had never lost one at a men’s World Cup across their entire history — until José Canale converted the decisive kick to send Paraguay through.

The result carries historic weight beyond the pitch. Germany, who entered the tournament among the favourites, now exit before the Round of 16 for the third straight World Cup — a run of early eliminations unthinkable for a nation that reached at least the semi-finals in four of the five tournaments between 2002 and 2014.

For Paraguay, the victory is their first appearance in the Round of 16 since their run to the quarter-finals in 2010. The three other knockout-stage upsets larger by FIFA ranking differential all involved either Spain or Italy: Russia’s shootout win over Spain in 2018, and South Korea’s back-to-back eliminations of Italy and Spain in 2002.

Paraguay now await the winner of France against Sweden in the Round of 16.