German mathematician who called last three World Cups backs Netherlands to win in 2026

Joachim Klement, the German mathematician whose algorithm has correctly identified the last three FIFA World Cup winners, has backed the Netherlands to lift the trophy for the first time in their history at the 2026 tournament.

Klement’s model, which factors in GDP per capita, population size and FIFA world rankings, led him to correctly pick Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022. Applying the same methodology to this summer’s competition, he has selected Ronald Koeman’s Dutch side as champions.

According to Klement’s projections, the Netherlands — currently ranked eighth in the world — will defeat Spain in the semi-finals before beating Portugal in the final in New York. He has England reaching the last four, where they will be eliminated by Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal.

The Dutch have never won a World Cup, finishing as runners-up on three occasions, most recently in 2010. Their only major international honour remains the European Championship in 1988. In their 2026 group, they face Japan, Sweden and Tunisia and are considered favourites to advance.

Despite his remarkable run of correct predictions, Klement has consistently cautioned against reading too much into his model. “It’s completely irrational. It’s like playing the lottery,” he said. “I always say that if anyone places a bet based on my prediction of who will be the next world champion, they’re beyond help.”

He has likened the exercise to a coin toss, arguing that a streak of accurate calls does not guarantee future success. “You might predict that the coin will land on heads four times in a row rather than tails, and that might well happen. But that doesn’t guarantee it will happen again next time.”

Klement also recalled his surprise when his first prediction came true in Brazil in 2014, given the historical difficulty European sides had faced winning tournaments held in South America. “I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil, also because all the experts had pointed out that no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America,” he said.

The Netherlands have lost just one of their last 16 matches inside 90 minutes, lending some statistical weight to Klement’s selection — even if the man himself insists the outcome remains firmly in the hands of chance.