Ireland can topple All Blacks at Eden Park and seize second in world rankings

Ireland have the chance to end one of rugby’s most enduring records when they face New Zealand at Eden Park, a ground the All Blacks have not lost at since France won there in July 1994 — a run stretching 32 years and 52 matches. Andy Farrell’s side arrive sitting just 1.72 ranking points and one place behind their hosts in the World Rugby Men’s Rankings.

The proximity of the two sides in the standings gives the contest added weight beyond the historical record. A win for Ireland would move them up to second place, with a projected rating of 90.49 points — rising to 91.08 should the margin of victory exceed 15 points. New Zealand’s rating could fall as low as 89.28 in the event of a heavy defeat.

The rankings picture at the top is further complicated by South Africa’s simultaneous home fixture against Wales. The Springboks have held the number-one position since September of last year, but if Ireland or New Zealand win by 16 points or more — and South Africa somehow lose to a Wales side ranked 11 places below them — the top spot could change hands. That scenario is considered highly unlikely given where both teams currently stand in their respective development cycles; Wales last won on South African soil in Bloemfontein in 2022.

Elsewhere in the rankings, France cannot improve their fourth-place standing regardless of their result against Japan. England, currently fifth, can only climb if they beat Argentina and France simultaneously lose. Scotland, meanwhile, have the opportunity to equal their highest-ever ranking of fifth — a position they briefly held a fortnight ago after defeating Argentina — though that outcome depends on their margin of victory against Fiji and results elsewhere.

Argentina, ranked seventh, would swap places with England if Los Pumas win their match, coming just three days after their country’s FIFA World Cup semi-final appearance. Australia face the prospect of dropping below Italy if they lose to the Azzurri for a third consecutive time, in what would also be Joe Schmidt’s final match as head coach.

At the lower end of the table, Portugal, Chile, and Zimbabwe all have the opportunity to reach their highest-ever rankings positions in the third round of the World Rugby Nations Cup, while Romania risk falling to an all-time low.