Caesars Sports warns USA World Cup run would be 'biggest loss ever' on a soccer tournament

The United States is the most popular selection in World Cup futures betting at Caesars Sports, and if the host nation lifts the trophy this summer, bookmakers are bracing for historic losses. That is the assessment of Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike, who described the USA as “by far our worst result in the book” ahead of the knockout stage.

The Americans entered the 48-team tournament at +5000 with Caesars. A 4-1 rout of Paraguay shortened their odds to +4000, and a 2-0 win over Australia pushed them further to +2800, placing them inside the top ten on the futures board. A 3-2 defeat to Türkiye — conceded in the final seconds of second-half injury time — nudged them back out to +3000, but the slip was modest.

“The combination of pre-tournament patriotic money and continued backing after their early performances has created a sizable liability,” Bickerdike said. “Even after the Türkiye result, we haven’t seen any meaningful pullback in support.”

The loss to Türkiye carried no consequence for the USA’s group standing, but Bickerdike noted it introduced some doubt into the market. “The result also raised some minor questions around the USA’s depth,” he said. “That’s been enough to see a small drift in their outright price.”

Despite that drift, the United States sits ninth on Caesars’ current World Cup odds board — a remarkable position for a side that began the tournament outside the top dozen. The public has driven that movement, with the host nation comfortably leading all teams in both number of wagers and total money staked in the tournament winner market over the past two weeks.

The USA now faces Bosnia and Herzegovina with slightly less momentum than they carried into the Türkiye fixture, but the betting public appears undeterred. Should the Americans advance deep into the knockout rounds, Bickerdike warned the exposure will compound rapidly.

“If they were to lift the trophy, I’d fully expect it to be the biggest loss we’ve ever seen on a soccer tournament,” he said.

France, Argentina, Spain, England, Portugal, and Brazil remain the most heavily backed sides among the traditional contenders, but none has generated the volume of public support that the host nation continues to attract.