Askren tips Tsarukyan to edge Covington by one point at RAF 11 in Milwaukee

Ben Askren is backing Arman Tsarukyan to beat Colby Covington by just one point when the two undefeated RAF competitors meet at RAF 11 on July 18 at the UWM Panther Arena in Milwaukee. The former UFC welterweight champion called it one of the trickier predictions he has had to make.

Speaking on The Ariel Helwani Show, Askren highlighted the weight dynamic as the central factor complicating his call. Tsarukyan, who competes at UFC lightweight, will be moving up to 185 pounds for the bout — a class Covington has already operated in, having wrestled at 200 pounds in previous RAF appearances.

“It’s interesting because Arman is going up in weight,” Askren said. “Colby has wrestled a couple of his matches at 200 pounds… Colby’s clearly the larger person. I don’t know. I’m very split on it. I think it’s kind of a coin flip… I think it’s gonna be competitive. I’ll go with Arman by a point.”

Despite the size concession, Askren stopped well short of dismissing Tsarukyan’s chances. He did note that Tsarukyan showed some vulnerability in close matches against Georgio Poullas — a college-level wrestler — though Tsarukyan ultimately went on to defeat Poullas twice in RAF competition.

Both fighters arrive at RAF 11 with unblemished records in the promotion. Covington (17-5 in MMA) has beaten Luke Rockhold, Dillon Danis, and Chris Weidman on the RAF circuit. Tsarukyan (23-3 in MMA) has accounted for Poullas twice, Lance Palmer, Keelon Jimison, and Urijah Faber.

Covington departed the UFC earlier this year to focus exclusively on RAF, having last competed for the promotion in 2024. Tsarukyan, meanwhile, remains on the UFC roster and is using RAF as an active outlet while awaiting a shot at the UFC lightweight title.

Tsarukyan himself has made a far bolder prediction than Askren, publicly stating he expects to win the bout 10-0.