Argentina's stunning comeback reshapes England's potential route to the World Cup final

England’s projected route to the World Cup final shifted dramatically after reigning champions Argentina overturned a two-goal deficit to beat Egypt 3-2 on Monday evening, dashing any hope Thomas Tuchel’s side had of avoiding Lionel Messi in the last four.

England had already secured their quarter-final place earlier in the day with a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City — a result achieved despite Jarell Quansah’s red card, a Harry Kane penalty conceded, a thunderstorm, and the punishing altitude of the Mexican capital.

Tuchel’s men will now face Erling Haaland’s Norway in the quarter-finals, after the Scandinavians produced a shock of their own by eliminating five-time world champions Brazil 2-1, with Haaland scoring twice. Norway’s quality was underlined by that result, and England will need to be at their best to progress.

The semi-final picture grew more complicated when Argentina staged their comeback against Egypt. Yasser Ibrahim and Mostafa Ziko had given the African side a stunning 2-0 lead late in the match, threatening one of the tournament’s biggest upsets. But from the 79th minute, Lionel Scaloni’s side responded with three goals in 17 minutes — Cristian Romero, Lionel Messi and Enzo Fernandez all on target — to seal a 3-2 win and keep Argentina’s title defence alive.

Messi, who has now scored eight goals in the tournament, remains the player England were most hoping to avoid. Their original projected path to the final had included Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Spain; Norway’s elimination of Brazil and Egypt’s near-upset had briefly offered a softer route, but Argentina’s resilience has closed that door.

Before a potential semi-final meeting with England, Argentina must first overcome Switzerland, who reached the last eight by beating Colombia on penalties. The Swiss were held 0-0 after 120 minutes before winning 4-3 in the shootout, with Manuel Akanji missing his spot-kick but Colombia’s Davinson Sanchez and Cucho Hernandez also failing to convert.

France, meanwhile, are projected to face Morocco, Spain and potentially England on their own route to the final — a path that analysts have calculated carries an average opponent ranking of 4.3. Should Argentina reach the final, England’s route would compare unfavourably in terms of difficulty, with Messi and Co. representing the sternest possible test at the semi-final stage.