All Blacks can reclaim top ranking with series-levelling win over Springboks in Baltimore

The World Rugby Men’s Rankings number-one spot is on the line in Baltimore this weekend, where New Zealand face South Africa in the concluding Test of the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series. A win for the All Blacks would level the four-match series at 2-2 and return them to the top of the global standings for the first time since the opening fixture.

The rankings lead has already changed hands twice during the series. New Zealand’s victory in the first Test at Ellis Park ended South Africa’s 11-month reign at the summit, but the Springboks reclaimed top spot a week later after winning the second Test in Cape Town. Last weekend’s 29-24 Springbok victory in Soweto pushed them further clear, lifting their rating to 94.33 points — a 2.43-point advantage over the All Blacks.

The mathematics are straightforward for New Zealand: any win in Baltimore would produce at least a 2.5-point swing, enough to wipe out the deficit and move them above South Africa. A strong Springbok victory, on the other hand, could extend their lead at the top to as many as 4.70 points.

The backdrop adds an edge to the Springboks’ position. South Africa have won back-to-back Rugby World Cups, and many within their camp regard the rankings as a secondary measure of supremacy — a sentiment that gives the Baltimore finale a point-scoring dimension beyond the numbers.

Elsewhere in the rankings picture, both semi-finals of the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup carry ranking points and contain genuine jeopardy for the established order. Fiji, the reigning Pacific Nations Cup champions, face Canada — a side they last lost to in 2013 and trail them by 15 places in the rankings. Defeat would drop Fiji out of the world’s top 10 for the first time since July 2024.

Japan, runners-up in the 2025 edition, face a United States team riding the momentum of four consecutive wins. A Japanese defeat would see them fall below Georgia to 13th in the rankings. The USA, however, will remain in 14th regardless of the result, while Canada would make upward progress with a shock victory over Fiji.

A win for either Fiji or Japan will not produce any positional changes for the victors, meaning the pressure falls entirely on the higher-ranked sides to protect their standing.