Tsarukyan opens as massive favourite over Gaethje after first-round KO at UFC 331

Arman Tsarukyan stormed back into lightweight title contention at UFC 331 in Los Angeles on Saturday, stopping Mauricio Ruffy with a brutal first-round knockout in the co-main event. Early odds for a hypothetical title fight against champion Justin Gaethje open Tsarukyan at -450, implying an 81.8 percent chance of victory for the Armenian contender.

Gaethje, listed at +350, would enter such a contest as a heavy underdog — a striking reversal of fortune for a fighter who has long been regarded as one of the most dangerous men in the division. While no official matchmaking has been confirmed, Tsarukyan’s dominant performance at UFC 331 makes him the near-universal choice as next challenger.

In the main event, flyweight champion Joshua Van retained his title with a unanimous decision victory over Alexandre Pantoja, widely considered the best performance of the 24-year-old’s career. Yet despite the commanding showing, oddsmakers are not convinced Van will hold the belt much longer. Manel Kape, broadly viewed as the frontrunner for the next flyweight title shot, opened as a -160 favourite against Van (+140) in a hypothetical matchup — odds that imply a 61.5 percent probability of a new champion. Notably, early public betting has already pushed that line close to even money.

UFC 331 therefore reshuffled the contender picture in two weight classes simultaneously. At flyweight, Van’s impressive title defence has done little to deter the market’s confidence in Kape, whose finishing ability and recent form have made him the division’s most anticipated challenger. At lightweight, Tsarukyan’s clinical finish of Ruffy removed any lingering doubt about his readiness for a championship opportunity.

Neither fight has been formally announced, and the UFC has yet to confirm either matchup. The odds reflect bookmaker projections rather than confirmed bouts, but the market’s direction is clear: both current champions enter their next assignments as underdogs.