Springboks could lose world number one ranking on Nations Championship opening weekend

South Africa’s position at the top of the World Rugby Men’s Rankings, held since mid-September, could be stripped away on the opening weekend of the inaugural Nations Championship — though the combination of results required borders on the improbable.

For the Springboks to be displaced, England would need to beat South Africa at Ellis Park in Johannesburg by a margin matching or exceeding Australia’s 38-22 victory there in last year’s Rugby Championship, while simultaneously New Zealand would have to defeat France by more than 15 points. France will be without Antoine Dupont for that fixture, adding a layer of credibility to what would otherwise seem a near-impossible scenario.

England travel to Johannesburg without their regular captain Maro Itoje, with Jamie George expected to lead the side instead. The historical record at Ellis Park offers little encouragement for Steve Borthwick’s men: England have never won there in the professional era, their only victory at the ground coming in 1972 by 18-9.

Ellis Park is the Springboks’ most-used Test venue, hosting 56 of their matches compared to 54 at Newlands, though it has not proven impregnable in recent years. Two of the last four Tests played there have ended in South Africa defeats, including that heavy loss to the Wallabies in 2024.

Should both results fall the wrong way for South Africa, the rankings arithmetic would be extraordinarily tight. New Zealand’s points total would rise to 90.945, while South Africa’s would fall to 90.941 — a margin of just 0.004 points separating the two sides at the top.

The current World Rugby Men’s Rankings top five reads: South Africa 93.94, New Zealand 90.33, Ireland 89.07, France 87.46, and Argentina 84.97, with England sixth on 83.91.