Spain and England final would be a sportsbooks' dream at the 2026 World Cup

Sportsbooks across the United States are bracing for their biggest World Cup semifinal betting weekend on record, with the four remaining teams — France, Spain, England, and Argentina — occupying the top four spots in FIFA’s world rankings and driving unprecedented wagering volume.

“Ever since the USA fell out, all of the knockout games have still been really big with our customers,” said Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer trading at Caesars Sports. “Records continue to fall, and we expect that to continue in the semifinals and the final. We had high expectations for the tournament as a whole. But we’re surpassing those expectations.”

France vs. Spain

France enter Tuesday’s semifinal in Arlington, Texas as the tournament-long futures favourite at +145 to lift the trophy, with Spain the second choice at +340. On the three-way moneyline — covering the result after 90 minutes and injury time — France opened at +120 and have drifted slightly to +127, with Spain moving from +225 to +215 and the draw sitting at +215.

In the To Advance market, which accounts for extra time and penalties, Caesars opened France at -162 and Spain at +130, with little movement since.

Public money is firmly behind France. Bickerdike noted that France are taking 54% of bets and money on the three-way moneyline, but the more telling figure is in the To Advance market, where 80% of money and 65% of bets are on France. Spain is attracting just 35% of bets and 20% of money to go through.

Despite the public lean, Caesars is rooting for Spain. “France is the biggest liability for us in the futures,” Bickerdike said. “Spain, both in the match and in the tournament winner book” is the preferred outcome for the house.

Much of that liability centres on Kylian Mbappé, who has scored eight goals in the tournament — level with Lionel Messi for the outright Golden Boot lead.

England vs. Argentina

Wednesday’s second semifinal pits England against Argentina, a rematch that sportsbooks are actively hoping to avoid in the final. The 2022 World Cup final between the same two nations — won by Argentina on penalties — is precisely the outcome books least want to see repeated on the biggest stage.

Both England and Argentina were pushed to extra time in their respective quarterfinals, a fact Bickerdike says has already nudged draw action upward heading into the last four. “We do see a little more on draws in these late stages,” he said, though he was quick to add that a draw remains the best result for the books on the three-way market.

With record sportsbook figures already logged across the knockout rounds, the semifinals are set to push those numbers higher still — regardless of which teams advance.