Scotland's World Cup knockout hopes fall to 0.07% after Senegal and Iran results

Scotland’s prospects of reaching the World Cup knockout stage have collapsed to 0.07 per cent, according to data provider Opta, after a damaging set of results on Thursday left Steve Clarke’s side almost entirely dependent on others.

The probability — approximately one in 2,000 — plummeted following Senegal’s 5-0 demolition of Iraq and a 1-1 draw between Egypt and Iran. Scotland needed Iraq to hold or narrowly beat Senegal, and Egypt to defeat Iran; neither result materialised.

Of the nine completed groups, Scotland sit second-bottom among third-placed teams, above only Uruguay following the South Americans’ defeat by Spain. South Korea, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Ecuador, and Paraguay had all already finished ahead of the Scots in the third-place table before the latest round of matches.

Scotland’s group-stage exit had looked likely since a 3-0 defeat to Brazil left them with three points and a goal difference of minus three. Spain’s win over Uruguay offered a rare moment of relief for the Tartan Army, but Iran’s draw was enough to put the Iranians above Scotland on goal difference.

For any survival hope to remain alive, Scotland need Ghana to beat Croatia by at least three goals on Saturday. Should that unlikely result occur, they would then require either a draw or a narrow Uzbekistan win — by no more than three goals — in the DR Congo versus Uzbekistan fixture in Group K. Finally, in the last group to conclude, Scotland would need Austria to beat Algeria by two goals, or Algeria to win by four.

A path to the knockout rounds — which would be a historic first for Scotland — technically still exists, but it requires three separate results to fall precisely their way. Clarke’s side will remain in the United States for at least another 24 hours, with Saturday’s matches set to determine whether their tournament is over.