Mbappé still alive in Golden Boot race despite France's World Cup semifinal exit

France’s World Cup campaign was reduced to a third-place play-off after a 2-0 semifinal defeat to Spain on Tuesday, but Kylian Mbappé’s individual pursuit of the Golden Boot is very much alive.

Mbappé sits level with Lionel Messi at the top of the scoring charts on eight goals apiece, and goals scored in the third-place match count toward the final standings. France will face the loser of Wednesday’s semifinal between England and Argentina.

With the two leading scorers tied on goals, FIFA’s tiebreaker rules come into play. The first tiebreaker is assists, where Mbappé currently holds the advantage with three to Messi’s two. Should assists also finish level, the award goes to the player who reached their tally in fewer minutes — and here the picture is more nuanced.

Mbappé has accumulated 609 minutes across seven matches, compared to Messi’s 531 minutes across six. If Messi plays at least 79 minutes in Argentina’s remaining game, he would overtake Mbappé in total minutes, meaning that particular tiebreaker would also swing in the Frenchman’s favour rather than against him.

Mbappé’s clearest route to a second consecutive Golden Boot is for the standings to stay exactly as they are. If Messi neither scores nor adds an assist in Argentina’s remaining fixture, Mbappé would claim the award on the assists tiebreaker assuming both finish on eight goals. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal could still leapfrog both if they find the net in the tournament’s final two games.

If Messi does score or assist on Wednesday, Mbappé would almost certainly need to respond in Saturday’s third-place match to keep his Golden Boot hopes intact.