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Lamine Yamal favourite for 2026 Ballon d'Or after voting closes

The vote by 100 FIFA top 100 journalists closed on 28 September. Lamine Yamal now leads Harry Kane in predictions with 45% chance of winning, ahead of the ceremony on 26 October in London.

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Lamine Yamal favourite for 2026 Ballon d'Or after voting closes
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The 2026 Ballon d’Or ballot officially closed on Monday 28 September. The 100 journalists from the FIFA rankings have cast their votes and can no longer modify their top 10. The name of Ousmane Dembélé’s successor will be revealed at the ceremony on 26 October at London Palladium Theatre in London.

Lamine Yamal has established himself as the new favourite on prediction platforms. The Spanish winger, crowned world champion with La Roja, now holds 45% chance of winning on Polymarket, narrowly ahead of Harry Kane (42%). The Bayern Munich striker, long leading the predictions thanks to a tally of 73 goals across all competitions, had himself tempered expectations: “Last season was the best of my life. Reaching 73 goals speaks to a group and work accomplished. Now it’s no longer in my hands.”

Behind this top-level duel, Kylian Mbappé remains in contention despite a collective trophy cabinet deemed insufficient this season, despite his World Cup top scorer award. Rodri, elected best player of the World Cup, also retains his supporters. Lionel Messi, finalist with Argentina, suffers from the slower pace imposed by MLS.

At Paris Saint-Germain, Ousmane Dembélé has not regained the consistency that earned him the title last year, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia saw his chances fade after Georgia’s absence from the World Cup.

The London ceremony carries particular symbolic weight: the relocation to London was organised to celebrate the 70th anniversary of Sir Stanley Matthews’ first triumph, first Ballon d’Or winner in 1956.

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