France risks elimination from UEFA Nations League if Belgium beats Italy on Sunday

France complicated matters in the UEFA Nations League after their 3-1 defeat at San Siro against Italy on Thursday evening — the first setback of the Zinédine Zidane era. The Blues, semi-finalists in the last World Cup, approach the final match under pressure and have lost top spot in the group.

Before this final act, Italy leads with 10 points and a goal difference of +5. France follow with the same total of 10 points but a less favourable goal average (+3). Belgium remain in the wings with 9 points, while Turkey, bottom with zero points, are already eliminated.

Kylian Mbappé’s side keep their destiny in their own hands: a draw against Turkey on Sunday is enough to secure qualification. Even in the event of defeat, a Belgian underperformance against Italy in Brussels would avert the danger.

But the catastrophic scenario very much exists. If France lose at home to Turkey and Belgium simultaneously beat Italy, the three teams would find themselves level — or nearly so — at the top. Belgium would seize first place with 12 points, while France and Italy would both be on 10 points.

This is where UEFA regulations prove particularly unfavourable to the Blues. In the event of a points tie between multiple teams, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record — not overall goal difference. Yet France’s record against Italy in this group is telling: a draw in the first match (1-1), then the San Siro defeat (3-1). Taking just one point from six possible against the Azzurri would mechanically condemn France to second place behind Italy, and thus elimination.

The equation is therefore unambiguous for Zidane and his players: only a positive result against Turkey guarantees qualification, regardless of the outcome of the match between Belgium and Italy.