Carragher warns Kane's record 72-goal season may not be enough to win Ballon d'Or

Jamie Carragher has argued that Harry Kane deserves the 2026 Ballon d’Or on current form but will probably be denied the award because it is likely to go to the standout player of the World Cup-winning nation — a team Carragher does not expect to be England.

Kane has scored 72 goals across the season for Bayern Munich and England, including a brace against the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the round of 32 that took his tournament tally to five. Writing in The Telegraph, Carragher described the numbers as historically elite.

“If the vote for the Ballon d’Or was being held right now, Kane would be the worthy winner, his heroics for England against DR Congo absorbing his 72nd goal of this season,” Carragher wrote. “Only Lionel Messi has recently hit those kinds of numbers. Not even Cristiano Ronaldo was so prolific in one campaign.”

Despite that assessment, Carragher believes the timing of a World Cup year works against Kane. “Based on the past 12 months, Kane should win the Ballon d’Or. Unfortunately, he probably won’t because in a World Cup year, it is bound to go to the star player of the winning nation. Much as I want to believe England can still win it, there is nothing to support that opinion, especially after recent performances.”

Carragher identified Lionel Messi as the likely winner if Argentina retain the trophy, while pointing to Kylian Mbappé and Kane’s own Bayern Munich team-mate Michael Olise as the leading French contenders should France lift the title. He also noted Ousmane Dembélé as a strong candidate following another impressive season.

“Kane’s goal output is beyond them all,” Carragher added. “He is performing at the same level as France’s best and Messi, going toe-to-toe in the Golden Boot race.”

Carragher acknowledged that Messi’s eighth Ballon d’Or, awarded months after Argentina’s 2022 World Cup triumph, validated the theory that the prize follows the tournament winner. Luka Modric’s 2018 win — despite Croatia losing the final — remains the notable exception in recent history, with World Cup finalists Antoine Griezmann and Mbappé finishing third and fourth that year rather than claiming the top prize.