All Blacks poised to reclaim top ranking if France stun Springboks in Paris

New Zealand need only a favour from France to reclaim the top spot in the World Rugby Men’s Rankings, with just 0.40 points separating the All Blacks from South Africa ahead of Friday’s Test at the Stade de France.

A French victory over the Springboks would cost South Africa 1.57 ranking points — enough to hand New Zealand first place for the second time this year. The deficit grows further if France win by more than 15 points. It is 21 years since France last beat South Africa on home soil, a 26-20 victory in 2005, which underlines how rare an outcome this would be.

New Zealand themselves face Wales in Cardiff this weekend but will not gain points from the result. Wales sit eight places below the All Blacks in 10th, meaning a routine victory carries no ranking reward for the tourists. Their fate rests entirely on events in Paris.

The All Blacks briefly held the top ranking in August during the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Series, when they defeated South Africa in the first of four Tests. The Springboks have held the lead ever since and could extend it to 1.10 points with a tenth win in 11 meetings against their southern hemisphere rivals.

Further down the table, England have a path to third place this weekend. They would need to beat Japan by more than 15 points, France to beat South Africa by the same margin, and Ireland to lose to Fiji at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Fiji have never won in Dublin, making the full combination of results a long shot, though the first two conditions are considered achievable.

At Murrayfield on Sunday, Scotland host Australia with sixth place on the line — whoever wins will finish the weekend in Scotland’s current ranking position.

There are also records within reach for some of the Nations Cup sides. Portugal could match their all-time high of 13th if they beat Samoa by more than 15 points and Georgia lose to Tonga by the same margin. Spain could equal their best-ever ranking of 14th if Portugal lose heavily to Samoa and they beat Chile. Chile, meanwhile, would match their own record of 16th with a victory in Madrid — and would leapfrog Spain in the process.

The current top ten in the World Rugby Men’s Rankings: 1. South Africa 93.09, 2. New Zealand 92.65, 3. Ireland 88.70, 4. France 87.49, 5. England 86.99, 6. Scotland 84.40, 7. Australia 83.12, 8. Argentina 81.62, 9. Fiji 77.79, 10. Wales 77.37.